Sticky spot deep in Bodog’s 20k guarantee MTT

Tonight, I saw Bodog's 20k would have a nice overlay and decided to give it a go. The buy-in is $44+4 with 3000 starting chips and they were short 130 players to meet the 20k guarantee ($5700 overlay).

The tournament started with 324 players, a very manageable field for an MTT. I picked up some good starting hands before the 1st break (AA, KK, JJx2). Unfortunately, I couldn’t get a full double up and started the 2nd hr with T$4800 chips.

This hand came up during the 2nd hr. Blinds at 150/300 some guy who’s limped a few times in EP, call’s the BB UTG. it folds around to me and I bump it to 900 pf with ATo on the button. He smooth calls. Flop comes K-T-x rainbow and he checks. I bet out T$1500 into a T$2200 pot. He tanks for quite a while and finally pushes for another T$1500. I really can’t fold here and call. He flips 99 and hits the rail. Strange play.

This gets me to about T$9000 chips and the table chip lead. I start pounding away in LP when folded to me if I have any thing resembling a decent hand, win a few hands and get to the 2nd break with T$12k chips.

During the 3rd hour, the big stacks are pressing the action and shortys got restless. I win a few races and go to the 3rd break with T$18k in chips, well above the average. After the 3rd break, I really start accumulating chips. I win a race with Ad5d vs KTo then, JJ vs A8s. a couple races later and stealing blinds/antes in-between, I have T$52k in chips when this hand comes up.

We’re down to 3 tables (21 players) with the average stack at over T$30k. I pick up AhJh in EP and raise it up T$8880 (blinds @ 1500/9000). A guy in MP smooth calls, everyone else folds and the flop comes J-high with two spades. I have approx T$43k behind. There’s T$24k in the pot. The guy behind me has me barely covered. I consider my options. If I bet half the pot, I’m committing over T$21k to the middle (including the pf action) leaving me about T$30k left. If he pushes after I bet, I don’t think I can fold.

Smooth calling his hand pf in this spot, I put him on a range of AQ-AJ-ATs possibly AK. But, that would be a strange way to play AK pf this late in the game IMO. A reraise pf would be more reasonable. I have a tough time putting him on KK or QQ but, these are also possibilities as well as JJ/TT/99 and lower. He could also have AA. That’s really the only hand I could see him smooth calling me with in position that has me beat with the obv exception of JJ. I couldn’t really believe the case J hit the flop.

What would you do?

(I’ll divulge the results on Tuesday)